A reset on both sidelines, and a road upset to start the AFC slate
New coaches on both sidelines, a rookie debut at quarterback, and a road upset in Foxborough — that was the headline as Las Vegas beat New England 20-13 to open the 2025 season. Bettors had the Patriots as 2.5-point home favorites (-145 money line) with a total of 44.5, but the Raiders cashed as underdogs and the game stayed comfortably under. The matchup felt tight from the first snap, and it rewarded the early narrative that the margins would be small in a Week 1 defined by change.
This wasn’t just another season opener. It was Mike Vrabel’s first game in charge of New England, with rookie Drake Maye under center, and Pete Carroll’s first outing with Las Vegas, rolling with veteran Geno Smith. The pregame angles were split: ESPN’s Mike Reiss called a New England win (28–24), while models leaned toward Las Vegas against the number, projecting the Patriots to cover in only about 55% of simulations. That live-dog label proved right.
The early exchanges set the tone. Geno Smith wasted no time pushing the ball to rookie tight end Brock Bowers, ripping a 23-yard seam completion that immediately forced New England to widen its coverage. A few snaps later, Smith hit Tre Tucker on a 26-yard strike for the first touchdown and a 7–0 lead. That quick burst made the Patriots adjust, and Maye answered with the kind of composed sequence New England hoped to see in his debut — a rhythm drive using tight ends Hunter Henry (27 yards on a chunk catch) and Austin Hooper, capped by a neat 2-yard corner route to DeMario Douglas for 7–7.
From there, the game tightened into a fistfight. The second quarter belonged to the defenses and the specialists, for better and worse. New England safety Jaylinn Hawkins knifed in for a drive-killing sack. Kicker Andy Borregales pushed a 40-yarder wide before settling down for a 35-yard make to send the Patriots into halftime up 10–7. Daniel Carlson had the distance from 58 as time expired in the half, but the kick sailed off target — a miss that hinted this one would be decided by inches.
Vrabel spent camp hammering second-half fitness and finish — he even pointed out how 12 of 16 Week 1 winners last year outscored opponents after halftime. On Sunday, that script flipped. The Raiders outpaced New England 13–3 after the break, leaning on veteran calm from Smith and timely pops from Bowers to tilt field position and keep the Patriots chasing. Las Vegas didn’t need fireworks; it needed control. It got it.
That control started up front. New England’s rebuilt offensive line — a point of emphasis all offseason — had flashes but little comfort. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell got the full AFC West welcome, seeing plenty of speed-to-power and counter moves off the edge from Malcolm Koonce and the constant presence of Maxx Crosby. You could see the Patriots trying to help with tight ends and backs, which slowed some route concepts and put more on Maye to extend plays on schedule.
On the other side, the Raiders found a steady groove protecting Smith. Quick-game throws and defined reads neutralized New England’s rush and protected a depth chart that listed Smith as the only healthy quarterback available — an unusual Week 1 risk that made every hit feel heavier. When the Patriots showed single-high looks, Smith took the easy access throws. When they rotated late, he worked Bowers between the numbers. The Raiders didn’t dominate; they just won the leverage snaps that kept drives alive.
Defensively, Las Vegas looked like a Pete Carroll group from the opening series: physical up front, patient behind it. The interior rotation with Leki Fotu and ex-Patriot Adam Butler ate double teams often enough to free Crosby and Koonce, and that ripple forced New England into shorter throws and tougher third downs. The Patriots moved the ball in spurts — Maye’s timing with Henry was a bright spot — but the Raiders repeatedly squeezed the space in the red area. That’s where the game swung. Borregales got three on the board, but the drive-by-drive profit was small.
New England’s plan for Maye wasn’t conservative, but it was careful: lots of defined reads, some scripted shots, and enough tight end work to blunt pressure. It worked early. As the game stretched, the Raiders took away first reads and dared Maye to throw into late windows. That is hard in your first NFL start, even at home, and it showed in a second half where New England’s possessions shortened and the margin for error shrank.
Las Vegas didn’t hide who it trusted. Bowers was the matchup piece that kept New England guessing — too fast for some backers, too big for safety help to arrive on time. Tucker brought the vertical spark, and Smith mostly avoided the one mistake that swings a Week 1 coin flip the wrong way. When the Raiders needed a playoff-caliber series late, they got it: clock control, safe completions, and points to push the lead out of reach.
Zoom out and the storylines stack up. The Raiders walked into Foxborough under Carroll and walked out with their third straight win over the Patriots, a pivot after dropping six in a row from 2005 to 2020. For New England, this was the first step in the Vrabel–Maye era — choppy at times, encouraging in moments, and very much a work in progress. The defense created chances. The offense found structure. Finishing drives remains the homework.
If you came for the trench battle, you got your money’s worth. Crosby’s impact isn’t just sacks; it’s the forced protections and the hurried feet from quarterbacks who sense the edge closing. Koonce tested Campbell repeatedly, and while the rookie didn’t fold, the attrition mattered. On New England’s side, the line had the right answers at times — pin-and-pull runs, slides to help the edge — but the Raiders made sure there was always one more problem at the snap.
Special teams kept both sideline cardiologists busy. Carlson’s 58-yard miss ended the first half, but his poise steadied the Raiders later. Borregales’ early miss and subsequent make mirrored New England’s day: close, competitive, and a few inches shy in the moments that swing outcomes. In tight, low-scoring openers, those are the snapshots that linger.
For bettors, the read was clean by the final whistle. The Raiders covered +2.5 and hit the money line as +122 underdogs. The under 44.5 never really sweated after the grind of the second quarter and a second half more about attrition than tempo. Pre-kick models that shaded toward Las Vegas against the spread had the right side, and the common Week 1 rule of thumb — veteran quarterback plus defensive continuity against a rookie making his first start — was worth something.
There were hints of what comes next for each team. The Patriots can lean even harder into the tight end game to support Maye, expand the quick game to steal easy yards, and build play-action shots off that base. The line will have better days when it isn’t dealing with Crosby’s relentless motor and a steady diet of games up front. Defensively, they were disciplined, which will travel. A little more havoc on third down would change everything.
For the Raiders, the identity is sensible: play clean with Smith, let Bowers stress coverage, let the front set the tone, and trust Carroll’s game management in the situational moments. The roster is a blend — veterans like Butler and Crosby anchoring a younger back seven — and it played with a maturity that fit the head coach on the sideline. If Las Vegas keeps winning the takeaway-free, field-position battles, it will stack the kind of wins that matter in December.
Week 1 can lie. It can also tell you plenty about who is ready to win ugly. Las Vegas was that team on Sunday — not perfect, not flashy, but stable in the places that decide games. New England showed enough structure around Maye to build on, but the stress points were clear: third down, red zone, and late-game execution against a defense that refused to bust. Those are coachable fixes; they just don’t happen overnight.
The betting markets priced this one as a modest home edge with a modest total. It played like a grind that rewarded anyone who expected a slower pace, fewer explosives, and a defense-first script in a stadium known for September weather and measured game plans. If you entered looking for fireworks, you got craft instead — and a result that confirms why early-season dogs with veteran quarterbacks often feel live.
So file this opener under “grown-up win” for Las Vegas and “useful tape” for New England. The Raiders leave Foxborough at 1–0 with Carroll’s blueprint already visible and Smith’s steady hand making the difference. The Patriots take the first reps of the Vrabel–Maye era and walk back into the facility with a clear to-do list. Next week will bring different matchups and different questions. But this one answered the only one that mattered on Sunday: who was better at closing time.
And if you were tracking the headline angle all week, you got it. The most obvious hook — Raiders vs Patriots in a meeting of new coaches — delivered a game that matched the billing, just in a quieter, tougher way than the scorecard alone shows. That’s Week 1: a fresh coat of paint, and the same old truth that the fine print decides it.
What mattered most: matchups, margins, and the money
- Coaching reset: Vrabel and Carroll set clear identities. New England leaned into structure for a rookie quarterback; Las Vegas built around steady quarterbacking, a dynamic tight end, and a front that plays through contact.
- Key matchup: Crosby and Koonce versus a new-look Patriots line. They didn’t need gaudy sack totals to win snaps that shaped down-and-distance.
- Early spark: Smith to Bowers on the seam, then the 26-yard strike to Tucker. That sequence forced New England to loosen the middle of the field.
- Red-zone pressure: The Raiders shrank windows near the goal line. New England’s best chances became field goals instead of touchdowns.
- Second-half flipside: The offseason emphasis in Foxborough was finishing late. The Raiders outscored the Patriots after halftime and controlled tempo.
- Betting outcomes: Raiders covered +2.5 and hit the money line; total stayed under 44.5. Pre-game models spotting value on the visitors had it right.
- Injury watch: Las Vegas entered with Smith as the only healthy quarterback on the depth chart — a notable risk that made protection and ball security non-negotiable.
- Trend check: Las Vegas has now won three straight against New England after dropping six in a row from 2005 to 2020.
