The Arizona State Sun Devils are heading into Folsom Field as heavy favorites, set to face the Colorado Buffaloes in a Big 12 conference showdown on Saturday, November 22, 2025, at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. It’s not just another game — it’s Colorado’s final home appearance of the season, and the Buffaloes are fighting an uphill battle against history, momentum, and a relentless Sun Devils offense.
Why Arizona State Is the Clear Favorite
Dimers.com’s predictive model, which simulated the game 10,000 times, gives the Sun Devils a 65% win probability — a staggering edge over Colorado’s 35%. The betting line reflects that dominance: Arizona State is a -7 point favorite with a moneyline of -250, while Colorado sits at +220. The over/under varies slightly across sources — 47.5 from Dimers.com, 49 from SportsChatPlace.com — but the underlying message is consistent: this isn’t going to be a shootout.
Here’s the thing: Arizona State’s rushing attack ranks fifth in the Big 12, averaging 198 yards per game. Colorado’s run defense? It’s 132nd nationally, surrendering 210.9 yards per contest. That mismatch alone tells you everything you need to know. Raleek Brown and Jeff Sims are a dynamic duo — one a bruising back, the other a dual-threat QB who can extend plays and find open receivers. Colorado’s secondary? Only five takeaways all season. That’s not a weakness — it’s a liability.
Colorado’s November Curse
Let’s talk about November. For Colorado, it’s become a nightmare. SportsChatPlace.com documented that the Buffaloes have lost all 11 of their November games as underdogs in recent years. And it’s not just losses — they’ve failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games against non-AP-ranked opponents. They’ve also lost the first half in each of their last four conference games. That’s not bad luck. That’s a pattern.
Even more telling? Colorado’s last win over Arizona State came in 2023 — a 27-24 road victory. Since then, the Sun Devils have gone 7-3, including a gritty 25-23 win over West Virginia last week. Colorado? They’re 3-7, coming off a 29-22 loss to the same West Virginia team. The gap isn’t just in the standings — it’s in confidence, execution, and resilience.
Predictions Across the Board
Analysts aren’t just guessing — they’re stacking data. Dimers.com’s projected final score: 26-21. Simple. Clean. Conservative. But YouTube creator Heartland Clip went further: 31-13. PicksAndParlays.net echoed that with 31-17. Both point to the same conclusion: Arizona State’s offense is too much for Colorado’s porous defense to handle. And when you combine that with Colorado’s tendency to fall behind early, the game could be over by halftime.
StatsAlt.com even suggests betting the under — 46.5 points — because neither team has shown the consistency to sustain a high-scoring affair. Arizona State averages 24.7 points per game. Colorado? Just 22. That’s not a recipe for fireworks. It’s a recipe for a grinding, physical game where the Sun Devils control the clock, chew up yards on the ground, and force Colorado into long, third-and-long situations where their defense collapses.
The Bigger Picture
This game isn’t just about who wins in Boulder. It’s about momentum heading into next season. For Arizona State, a win here could be the exclamation point on a turnaround year — their first winning season since 2020. For Colorado, it’s a chance to end a brutal campaign on a high note. But the odds, the stats, and the history all point the same way: the Buffaloes are running out of time, out of answers, and out of hope.
And let’s not forget the venue. Folsom Field isn’t the hostile fortress it once was. Attendance has dropped. The energy is thin. The Buffaloes aren’t just underdogs — they’re isolated, outmatched, and out of sync.
What’s Next?
Arizona State wraps up its regular season with a trip to Utah next week. A win over Colorado would give them a 8-3 record and keep them in the conversation for a potential bowl bid. Colorado? Their season ends here. No more home games. No more chances to turn it around. The program is in transition, and this game might be the final chapter of a very rough year.
Historical Context
Just two years ago, Colorado stunned Arizona State on the road. That 2023 win felt like a turning point. But since then, the Sun Devils have added depth, tightened their defense, and found a rhythm under head coach Kenny Dillingham. Colorado, meanwhile, has cycled through coordinators, lost key starters, and watched their recruiting rankings slip. The 2023 game was an anomaly. This one? It’s the correction.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Arizona State favored despite their modest scoring average?
Arizona State’s strength isn’t in explosive scoring — it’s in consistency and control. They average 24.7 points per game, but they’re efficient, limit turnovers, and dominate time of possession. Their rushing attack, ranked fifth in the Big 12, exploits Colorado’s worst-in-nation run defense (210.9 yards allowed per game). In a game where Colorado struggles to hold leads, ASU’s ability to grind out drives is the real advantage.
Has Colorado ever covered the spread as a heavy underdog this season?
No. Colorado has failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams. They’ve also lost all 11 of their November games as underdogs since 2021. Even when they’ve kept games close, they’ve fallen short of the point total. This trend isn’t random — it’s systemic, tied to poor late-game execution and defensive breakdowns.
What’s the significance of this game for Arizona State’s season?
A win would give Arizona State an 8-3 record and make them eligible for a bowl game — their first since 2020. More importantly, it would validate their turnaround under coach Kenny Dillingham. With a strong finish, they could attract top recruits and enter 2026 with real momentum. This game is about legacy, not just wins.
Is the under 46.5 points a smart bet?
Yes, according to StatsAlt.com’s analysis. Neither team has shown the ability to consistently score above 25 points in a game this season. Arizona State’s offense is methodical, not explosive. Colorado’s defense may be weak, but their offense is even worse — averaging just 22 points per game. With both teams prone to three-and-outs and field position battles, a low-scoring game is far more likely than a shootout.
Why does Folsom Field matter in this matchup?
It shouldn’t — but it does. Folsom Field used to be a fortress, but attendance has dropped 30% since 2022. The crowd won’t be electric. The noise won’t disrupt Arizona State’s offense. For Colorado, home-field advantage has vanished. This game feels more like a neutral site contest — and that’s exactly what Arizona State needs to win comfortably.
What’s the most likely final score?
While projections range from 26-21 to 31-17, the most statistically grounded prediction is 26-21, per Dimers.com’s 10,000 simulations. That score reflects Arizona State’s steady offense, Colorado’s inability to sustain drives, and the likelihood of one key turnover sealing the deal. It’s not glamorous — but it’s realistic.
